Outlining the region's economic indicators

Dr. Patrick Jones is not a prophet. At least that’s what he told the audience at the West Plains Chamber of Commerce’s monthly meeting Feb. 20 at Eastern Washington University’s Tawanka Hall.

In fact, he questioned whether anybody could make specific predictions for the future of the region.

“Anybody who says they can forecast at county (level) or below county are deluding themselves,” the executive director of Eastern’s Institute for Public Policy and Economic Analysis said.

What Jones did provide was a brief overview and takeaway from what has been happening the past few years in Spokane County and its cities, along with a glimmer of a possible near future.

What has happened demographically is the county’s population is not as poor and quite as slowly growing as outsiders might believe. It also has a mix of occupations driving its economy that many might not realize.

Spokane County’s population has been averaging around a 1 percent annual growth rate, which is less than the state’s 1.2 – 1.3 percent but better than the U.S. rate of .7 percent. At 508,000 people, that puts the county in the top 100 of metropolitan areas in the country, and could lead to a doubling of people by 2050.

“That’s going to be a change,” Jones said.

These 508,000 people are part of county households with a median yearly income of $53,000, about 88 percent of the U.S. median of $60,000 but far below the state median of $71,000. Near the top of the average are Medical Lake and Airway Heights with median incomes of $50,000 each, while the city of Spokane median is $46,000.

Cheney’s median household income comes in at just $34,000 — something that is not necessarily surprising.

“On average, a college town is really poor,” Jones said. “It’s the same in Pullman (Washington State University) and in Ellensburg (Central Washington University).

Jones said household income sits on a three-legged economic stool, but on legs not equal to each other. The smallest of these is earnings on investments, followed by “transfer payments,” i.e., government funding.

The biggest is wages, and while local wages have grown by about 4 percent recently, over time it’s been about 2.5 percent annually, roughly the rate of inflation.

“Basically, our wages have been stagnant for about 15 years,” Jones said. “This is not unique to Spokane.”

The employment sector with the largest share of the wage pie is health care, with about 19 percent of the county workforce. And while some might think this amounts to a number of high-paying jobs such as doctors and nurses, Jones said there are more lower-paying jobs in this field than high.

“It actually pays less than average on the overall average,” he said.

Next highest share is in government at 16.5 percent. This includes public school employees, and is generally considered one of the better paying sectors.

“For those who would like to see it (government’s size) come down, it has come down,” Jones said. “It’s gotten smaller in the last 15-20 years.”

Retail is third with tourism positions fourth — both of which are growing — followed by manufacturing, which has declined from 9 percent in 2002 to 7 percent in 2017. Administrative support, construction, wholesale, financial/insurance and knowledge workers round out the top 10 — the latter being one of the fastest growing in the local economy and includes professional/technical employees, lawyers, engineers, software specialists and media professionals.

As for population growth, Jones said the 6,600 people who moved to the region in 2017-18 didn’t come from out of state or from Seattle. The number one county supplying migrants to Spokane was Snohomish, with many also coming from Eastern Washington counties such as Grant, Yakima, Lincoln and Adams.

John McCallum can be reached at [email protected].