Crunch Time
For those of us who thought the Football Championship Subdivision had everything figured out when it came to the postseason, we may want to think again. In fact, it maybe the FCS is coming down with a little FBS-playoff case of the flu, or possibly a BCS hangover.
First, let me introduce you to the SRS. That’s the acronym for the Simple Ratings System, the NCAA’s FCS playoff selection formula. According to a story by The Sports Networks’ Craig Haley, the SRS is somewhat akin to the RPI system used to pick teams for the NCAA’s March Madness, incorporating things like strength of schedule and win-loss differential to rank teams for potential playoff spots.
The system, while not meant to be the overall deciding factor in team selection, also wasn’t, as Haley puts it, “expected to be such a work-in-progress either.” Prior to the SRS, the selection committee’s playoff picks often cast aside good statistics in favor of subjective viewpoints on which at-large teams were worthy of postseason consideration, something the SRS was supposed to help alleviate.
That process may be in need of more tweaking. As an example, Haley points to the University of New Hampshire, which last year had the lowest SRS — 29 — of all the at-large teams, but made the playoffs over five other teams with better SRS numbers.
This year, UNH had an SRS of six, but earned the No. 1 seed. Three-time defending champion North Dakota State had the best SRS number, but was seeded second, followed by Jacksonville State with an SRS of two, but seeded third and Eastern Washington with an SRS of seven yet seeded fourth.
Schools with seeds higher than UNH and the Eagles were seventh-seeded Coastal Carolina (third) and fifth-seeded Illinois State (fourth). Other at-large teams making the playoffs were Richmond (25), Montana State (29) and Stephen F. Austin (32) while teams like Idaho State (19), Bethune-Cookman (24), Bryant (26), Charleston Southern (27), Jacksonville (29) and Bucknell (30) are on the outside looking in and waiting for next year.
The SRS does explain how a 7-5 Indiana State, with a rating of 21, from the Missouri Valley Conference did make it into the field of the first 16.
To be sure, there’s more to the selection process, such as wins and performances against Division I opponents and how a team finishes the regular season, with strong finishes shining brighter lights. When you take a closer look at the seedings and at-large awards, incorporating these last two factors helps to shake things into line a bit more.
But it’s an imperfect science, just like the new FBS playoff or the recently deceased BCS systems are. I suppose you could simply reduce the number of playoff spots by limiting them to conference champions only, but that would be punishing teams like Coastal Carolina, who put up a great season-long body of work by opening with a win over Division I Citadel and then running the table against other strong opponents before losing their final game, and the Big South title, to Liberty.
It’s a tough world, being a football playoff selector.
Which brings me to this Saturday’s FCS first-round game between San Diego, winners of the Pioneer Football League regular season title, and Big Sky second-place, at-large Montana. My question is how does an 8-4 at-large qualifier get to host a playoff game against a 9-2 regular season league champion?
Oh yes, I’ve been reminded of the reason — the cash register ring of 25,000 Grizzly fanatics sitting in Missoula’s freezing cold stadium Saturday afternoon.
Still, the Toreros, a twice-annual basketball foe of Gonzaga in ye old West Coast Conference, tied with above playoff-cheated Jacksonville, earned the automatic bid despite an early season league loss to the Dolphins. However they managed to get in, they are regular-season champions.
You’d think that would count for something in the SRS, results-against-Division-I, strong-finish, smell-test world.
John McCallum can be reached at [email protected].
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